Access Tourism NZ TOURISM FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES, SENIORS, AND AGEING BOOMERS IN NEW ZEALAND AND WORLDWIDE

Population aging is emerging as a major demographic trend in many countries, with potentially important economic implications. The share of the population aged 60 and over is expected to increase dramatically in every country in the world between 2000 and 2050.  Below are some extracts from a report by three scholars from the Harvard School of Public Health (David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health)

UN Programme on Ageing

In 2009, 680 million people worldwide were 60 or older (11% of world population).  Current population projections suggest that there will be a sharp acceleration in the number and share of the elderly. According to the latest estimates, the population aged 60 and older will increase from 680 million to 2 billion by 2050; over the same time the share of people over 60 will increase from 11 to 22 percent. While the world population is projected to be 3.6 times as large in 2050 as it was in 1950, the number of these who are 60 and over is expected to increase by a factor of 10, and those 80 and over will increase by a factor of 27 (UN, 2009). Of course, these global averages mask considerable heterogeneity both across and within regions. At present the share of those 60 or older ranges quite widely, from 5 percent in Africa to 22 percent in Europe. By contrast, there is much less heterogeneity with respect to the time trends. Population aging will take place in all regions in the coming decades as the 5–22 percent range today is projected to become an 11–34 percent range in 2050 (UN, 2009).

 The ten countries with the highest shares of people aged 60 and over in 2005 are Japan, with 27%, Italy and Germany (25%), Sweden, Greece, and Bulgaria (23 %), Latvia, Portugal, Belgium, and Austria (22%).  Those projected to have the highest shares in 2050 are Japan (44%), Republic of Korea (41%), Singapore and Germany (40%), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Italy, and Cuba (39%), Portugal, Bulgaria, and Poland (38%).  Japan currently has the largest old-age share in the world, with 27% of the population aged 60 and over, rising to 44% by 2050 (UN projection 2009). Japan’s trajectory, however is not unique; by 2050, more than 70 countries, representing about one third of the global population, are expected to have an old-age share exceeding Japan’s share of 27 percent today.

 The phenomenon of population aging is not limited to wealthy industrial countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Spain, but also affects the two largest developing countries, India and China. People in their 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s will comprise 20 percent of India’s population and 30 percent of China’s by 2050 – adding up to over three-fourths of a billion people, more than the total 60-and-over population of the world today.

 Ref: United Nations (2009) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. CD-ROM Edition – Extended Dataset, United Nations.